Thinking in Bets
Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
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Thinking in Bets
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Narrated by:
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Annie Duke
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Written by:
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Annie Duke
About this listen
Wall Street Journal bestseller!
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handing off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values, and even rewards, the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.
Includes a bonus PDF of charts and graphs.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.
©2018 Annie Duke (P)2018 Penguin AudioCritic Reviews
"A big favorite among investors these days."–The New York Times
"A compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital... Recommend for people operating in the real world."–Marc Andreessen
"Duke’s discussion is full of wisdom and also of fun, warmth, humor and humanity. Her sharp, data-driven analysis comes with a large lesson, which is that losers should be willing to forgive themselves: Sometimes the right play just doesn’t work."–Cass Sunstein, co-author of Nudge
What listeners say about Thinking in Bets
Average Customer RatingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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Overall3 out of 5 stars
- Amazon Customer
- 12-12-20
A bit underwhelming
This book is mostly about probabilistic thinking and different biases. If you don't read that much and you are looking for a good self help book, this would suit that need, but if you are an experienced reader then you might find this a little underwhelming. There are no new deep concepts in this book. It's mostly regurgitated from other self help books. Also few things she mentioned like "getting letterman'ed" (a phrase she coined after giving an example of an interaction David Letterman had with one of his guests Lauren Conrad) was a bit cringe worthy.
Overall covers some good concepts and would be a good read, if you have not read books like Power of Habit or Thinking fast and Slow and few other.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
- Anonymous User
- 30-11-18
A decision makers guide book in uncertainty
Very lucid, clear and enjoyable book on uncertainty and how to become better decision maker.
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1 person found this helpful
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Overall4 out of 5 stars
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Performance4 out of 5 stars
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Story4 out of 5 stars
- vishal jaiswal
- 21-04-20
good book
good book, might help you in making good decisions with out making biases and demarcate specific objects in your thinking and decision making process followed by the outcome overview.
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Overall3 out of 5 stars
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Performance4 out of 5 stars
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Story3 out of 5 stars
- Manas Saran
- 14-11-21
Good approach with little strategy
The fundamental idea of the book is understood in the first couple of chapters. The chapters in the middle include a lot of repetition, to the point of being boring. Finally the last 3-4 chapters give you some usable ideas.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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Story5 out of 5 stars
- SACHIN SINGH
- 16-06-22
Life changing book
This book is life changing and performance by Annie was phenomenal. It’s an experience everyone must go through. There’s a lot to learn and it’ll make life easier
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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Story5 out of 5 stars
- Vinayak Kamath
- 02-08-20
This is an education
Hoping to hear this yet and to develop a toolkit to put these lessons into action. While listening to the book, I could immediately think of two professional situations where I could do much more. Come Monday morning, I’m going to implement those. Thank you Annie Duke.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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Story5 out of 5 stars
- Anuraj pandey
- 23-08-23
excelle book
must relisten
hardcopy
decision making
must relisten
hardcopy
decision making
thinking process
stock market
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Overall2 out of 5 stars
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Performance1 out of 5 stars
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Story4 out of 5 stars
- Hemanth
- 19-12-20
I expected much more.
2 or 3 concepts repeated again and again. I was expecting more. I felt the content is repeated again and again.
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