In the first half, we examine the (rumored) literal fisticuffs in D.C., and the implications of the proposed “Big, Beautiful Bill” on taxes, spending, the deficit, interest rates, and the dollar. We discuss the timing of tax cuts versus spending cuts, especially in light of the employment data we have seen since 2022, wherein:

• Private sector job growth -> a little over 1% cumulatively.
• Public sector job growth -> over 7% cumulatively.

In the second half, we discuss the market’s rapid rebound from its April nadir and juxtapose returns (and valuations) for different parts of the equity market. Is it finally time for diversification to help after a 15-year run for the U.S.?

• U.S. large caps +3% YTD
• U.S. small caps -2% YTD
• Developed non-U.S. +17% YTD
• Emerging markets +11% YTD

While the collapse in the volatility index and the huge rally from the lows normally portend further gains, valuations for the S&P 500 are historically high on any number of measures. While the so-called Magnificent Seven are more elevated, the other 493 are also expensive, and have grown earnings a lot more slowly than the tech titans. Contrary to our forecast entering 2025, fewer than one in three stocks are outperforming this year, putting a premium on stock selection. While multiples are high, we think active managers willing to go further afield can find values.

Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

In this episode, we have a no-holds-barred conversation featuring Kalee Kreider, a seasoned political strategist and expert in climate policy.

Together, we dig into the uncomfortable truths about markets, politics, and the economic pressures facing everyday Americans. From election forecasts and the appeal of government gridlock to the harsh realities of student debt, the conversation is unscripted, unfiltered, and unexpectedly funny.

We explore why investors often prefer a slow-moving Congress, how middle-income families are still reeling from financial burdens nobody talks about, and why economic narratives need more honesty and a lot less spin.

What You’ll Learn:

• Why political gridlock can actually calm the markets
• The ongoing impact of student debt on families earning six figures
• What’s really driving midterm election outcomes—and what to expect next
• How public perception influences both policy and portfolio performance
• Why clarity in communication is just as valuable as a solid balance sheet

Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

In the first half, we discuss the showdown between the U.S. and China on tariffs. While the headlines have been stolen by who is calling whom first, we look into the effect the tariffs are already having on container ship volumes, and what implications that has for the rest of the supply chain, and the economy. Tariffs are just starting to hit consumers as they look to buy online, with the tariff exceeding the purchase price in some cases. While there is optimism over a resolution, historically trade agreements have involved lengthy negotiations, and we are weeks away from the initial impact of being felt, making this akin to a slow moving shipwreck. We also discuss the impact of student loan payments turning back on after years of forbearance.

In the second half, we discuss the rebound in U.S. equities, which are anticipating a quick and painless resolution to the trade war, along with three or four cuts by the Federal Reserve during the rest of this year. In our opinion, that number of cuts would only occur if we saw the onset of a recession, which has significant market implications.

• Since World War II, the average recession sees gross domestic product (GDP) decline 2.3%.
• The average earnings decline for the S&P 500 is 11% during a recession
• However, around 1/3 of the time, earnings decline 5% or less.

Many market strategists are celebrating the recent equity rebound, which has been broad based and triggered a number of positive market breadth signals. While these are normally positive portents, valuation is not part of the calculation, and any disappointment in terms of the current earnings estimates leaves little room for error, making us mindful of seeking opportunities outside of the index, which continues to be dominated by a handful of stocks.

Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.