Future Forecasting

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight.

When we think about the future, it can be difficult to feel that we have any control. We aren't confident that we can take actions and make decisions that help determine what happens next. We want to feel prepared, hopeful and equipped and to face the future with optimism. Or, better yet, change the future. But how do we map out our lives when it feels impossible to predict what the world will be like next week, let alone next year? Jane McGonigal, a renowned future forecaster, reveals that 'unimaginable' events aren't unimaginable before they happen.

What To Do When Machines Do Everything is a guidebook to succeeding in the next generation of the digital economy. When systems running on Artificial Intelligence can drive our cars, diagnose medical patients, and manage our finances more effectively than humans it raises profound questions on the future of work and how companies compete. Drawing upon real-world cases, data, and insight, the authors provide clear strategic guidance and actionable steps to help you and your organization move ahead in a world where exponentially developing new technologies are changing how value is created.

Businesses, organizations and society-at-large are all subject to unforeseeable events and incidents that often have a dramatic impact upon prosperity and profit. Due to their unpredictable nature, business leaders and executive teams are unable to prepare for these specific events. But, through innovation, strategizing and an open-minded approach, they can restructure their organization and practices in order to mitigate (or even take advantage of) the impact of such events.

Breakthroughs such as personalized genomics, drones, self-driving vehicles, and artificial intelligence could make our lives healthier, safer, and easier. On the other hand, the same technologies raise the spectre of a frightening future - eugenics, a jobless economy, a complete loss of privacy, and ever-worsening economic inequality. Wadhwa says that we need to ask three questions about every emerging technology.

How can we think about the future? What do we need to do - and who do we need to be? We are addicted to prediction, desperate for certainty about the future. But the complexity of modern life won’t provide that; experts in forecasting are reluctant to look more than 400 days out. History doesn’t repeat itself and even genetics won’t tell you everything you want to know. Ineradicable uncertainty is now a fact of life.

Patrick Dixon looks at how the future will be Fast, Urban, Tribal, Universal, Radical and Ethical - a future of boom and bust and great economic change as the emerging markets grow up; a future of great advances in medicine and also greater threats from viral epidemics; a future of political shocks and greater conflicts; a future in which people will strive for more privacy and businesses will change the way they relate to their staff and their customers.

Sometimes the events that seem pivotal are just blips, while the more meaningful cultural shifts are hiding in plain sight. Marian Salzman’s job is to uncover those hidden shifts. So what’s in store for the next two decades? In this acutely observed guide, Salzman, whose past predictions have been heralded for coming uncannily close to the way we live now, unpacks the course of human life from the bumpy turn of the millennium through the pandemic era.

How do you tell a real trend from the merely trendy? How, for example, will a technology—like artificial intelligence, machine learning, self-driving cars, biohacking, bots, and the Internet of Things—affect us, our businesses, and workplaces? How will it eventually change the way we live, work, play, and think—and how should we prepare for it now? In The Signals Are Talking, noted futurist Amy Webb shows us how to analyze the "true signals" and land on the right side of disruption.

The author of the acclaimed New York Times best seller The Next 100 Years now focuses his geopolitical forecasting acumen on the next decade and the imminent events and challenges that will test America and the world, specifically addressing the skills that will be required by the decade’s leaders. The next 10 years will be a time of massive transition. In The Next Decade, George Friedman offers listeners a pro­vocative and endlessly fascinating prognosis for the immedi­ate future.

Wir sind inmitten einer historischen Zeitenwende - weltweit! Wirtschaft, Politik, Gesellschaft. Nichts wird so bleiben, wie es war. Wir stehen vor großen Verwerfungen und dem größten Vermögenstransfer in der Geschichte der Menschheit. Krisen sind aber auch Chancen: Jetzt werden Vermögen auf Generationen gemacht oder vernichtet. Der fünffache Spiegel-Bestsellerautor Marc Friedrich zeigt mit seinem Hörbuch, wie jeder für sich und wir als Menschheit die Krise als einmalige Chance nutzen können.

Inventors are makers, artists, musicians, and creators, and every one of us has that creative ability within. Like a play or concert, an invention is a fundamentally collaborative effort and a journey of shared experiences. Are you a maker, creator, inventor, or artist? Are you curious about technology and want to make the world a better place? Explore the possibilities of tomorrow through the twenty-year journey of Dr. Cori Lathan, Founder and CEO of AnthroTronix, and embark on your own adventure to invent the future.

In What's Your Moonshot? trend and innovation strategist John Sanei explains how to ask the bigger, bolder, more courageous questions that will help you thrive - rather than merely survive - in our exponentially changing times. With a future-focused victor mindset, Sanei decodes the mega-trends that are reshaping human behavior and the way we do business - not to mention, the way we live our lives.

The future is not what it used to be. In this volatile era, with the world changing rapidly, people are more curious than ever to know what lies ahead. Will relentless consumerism end up destroying our planet? Or can science and technology allow us to innovate our way out of trouble? Perhaps a greater social consciousness and community-based living will take over or, conversely, the competition for limited resources may result in everyone fighting for themselves.

We are in the midst of an unprecedented degree of technology-driven change at the same time that society faces challenges more complex than our organizations and we as individuals have been prepared to handle. Autonomous Transformation: Creating a More Human Future in the Era of Artificial Intelligence is for leaders who want to create a better future within this context of change and supplies a balance of historical and theoretical context with practical frameworks for beginning to create a more human future today.

In The Web3 Era, David Shin connects pivotal moments from the history of human progress and global trade with current events that are shaping the world of tomorrow through a fascinating and insightful exploration of the long-term, next-level use cases of non-fungible tokens and digital assets, and their implications for industries that leverage these advancements.

Wie konnte es trotz aller frühzeitigen Warnungen zur Covid-19-Pandemie kommen? Und was sollten wir tun, um künftig noch Schlimmeres zu verhindern? Für den richtigen Umgang mit der Welt nach der Krise müssen wir zum einen verstehen, was an welchen Stellen falsch gelaufen ist. Zum anderen müssen wir uns neu orientieren und die großen Themen der Post-Corona-Welt identifizieren. Georg Vielmetters umfassende Analyse relevanter Trends und Megatrends hilft Entscheiderinnen und Entscheidern in Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft dabei, die Weichen richtig zu stellen. Ein Leitfaden für diejenigen, die unsere Zukunft aktiv gestalten: erhellend und oft überraschend.

Welche Zukunft erwartet uns? Lässt sich dazu überhaupt etwas aussagen? Prognoseinstrumente gibt es viele, weltanschaulich Philosophisches noch weit mehr, und der Begriff "Utopie" hat seine Bedeutung mehrfach ins Gegenteil verkehrt. Wir blicken in diesem Spektrum Kompakt-Hörbuch von den Prozessen in unserem Gehirn bis hin zu der Frage, ob und wie wir uns wohl auf Kontakt mit Außerirdischen vorbereiten sollten. Spektrum Kompakt bündelt als Hörbuch Artikel zu aktuellen Themengebieten.

According to futurists Rolf Jensen and Mika Aaltonen, we are currently "between dreams". We've managed to achieve many of our material goals, only to face ever-growing global competition in an ever-slowing economy. Here's the good news: With the rise of social media and online resources, consumers are growing more powerful. Individuals are exploring more options. And smart businesses are discovering more ways to appeal to this powerful new community. Welcome to The Renaissance Society.

The tumultuous changes of the past decade, including China's economic rise and the financial meltdown, were just the beginning. The next cataclysmic wave is surging relentlessly ahead, demanding leaders who can steer their companies through complexity and change. Leadership 2030 uncovers six megatrends that will dramatically impact organizations' markets, cultures, systems, and processes.